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The aim of the paper is to present and illustrate a new approach for long‐range planning.

Building on well‐tested frameworks such as activity‐based costing (ABC), life‐cycle costing (LCC) and Monte Carlo methods as well as earlier case studies, an approach is developed further and tested using a real‐life case.

The effectiveness of the approach is confirmed using a process‐oriented framework (ABC) and introducing an LCC perspective. Monte Carlo methods are used to handle uncertainty and identify risks and critical success factors.

The presented research is a starting‐point for developing a simple approach for budgeting that overcomes many of the problems with traditional budgeting.

The paper shows how long‐range planning can be performed in a realistic fashion without ending up in many of the traps of traditional budgeting.

The paper presents an approach that can help corporations anticipate the future much more realistically than before.